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2.2. Extent of land cover classes in Armenia

GIS modeling and analysis – Eduard Kazakov (NextGIS OÜ, Estonia)
Analysis and presentation of results – Elena Bukvareva (BCC-Armenia)
Search for government data – Armen Grigoryan (BCC Armenia)

2.2.A. Extent of land cover classes reported by Government of Armenia

The Decision of the Government of the Republic of Armenia in April 11, 2019 n 431-n “On approval of the procedure for classification of the land cover of the Republic of Armenia” defined the following land cover classes for national accounting:
– Cultivated lands
– Grasslands
– Tree-covered areas
– Shrub-covered areas
– Water covered areas
– Vegetation-free areas

Table 1. Land cover of the Republic of Armenia 2974258.8 ha area, by classes, 2020-2024

Land cover classes	As of July 1, 2020	As of July 1, 2021	As of July 1, 2022	As of July 1, 2023	As of July 1, 2024
Cultivated lands	538361.22	538580.09	538930.12	538919.19	539620.52
Grasslands	1366386.896	1371066.28	1370749.11	1370618.62	1363686.44
Tree-covered areas	400522.06	400375.84	400279.49	382109.06	382361.15
Shrub-covered areas	34200.612	34193.77	34135.56	34124.48	34374.33
Water covered areas	151491.8	153889.698	153890.39	172088.29	172117.81
Vegetation-free areas	483295.83	476152.342	476274.17	476398.959	482098.73

Figure 1. The share of land cover classes in Armenia by Government-reported data

These data are sufficient to fill in the accounting table in the SEEA EA-recommended format only partially (Table 2) since only data on the opening and closing extent are availablе (rows 1 and 9). From these data, the net change in areas is calculated (row 8). Data on gross expansion and reduction in the areas of land cover classes, which may offset each other (rows 2 and 5), as well as a breakdown of change drivers into managed and unmanaged (rows 3,4 and 6,7), are not available.

Table 2. Accounting table of land-cover class extent for 2020 and 2024, based on government-reported data

The more detailed disaggregation of land cover classes by land fund categories provided in the Government-reported data, enables the separation of vegetation-free anthropogenic areas, i.e., built-up areas from natural ones and makes it possible to compare Governmental data and land cover datasets (see here). The result with reclassified vegetation-free areas for Armenia and across marzes is shown un Fig.2.
How to classify grasslands and cultivated lands located within settlement boundaries is a question that needs to be addressed in order to harmonize satellite-based land cover classifications with official land cover statistics. At this stage of the analysis, we kept these lands within grasslands and cultivated lands, respectively.
Figure 2. The share of land cover classes in Armenia and across marzes by Government-reported data

Table 3. Land cover class extent by marzes in 2022 by Government-reported data, ha

	Tree-covered areas	Grasslands	Shrub-covered areas	Vegetation-free areas	Water covered areas	Cultivated	Buil-up
Aragatsotn	8571.9	163313.3	392.5	20565.3	2189.9	67143.7	15095.6
Ararat	12724.74	99272.39	2496.22	35572.84	7090.2	40224.09	11061.98
Armavir	582.41	29283.57	634.13	17666.4	3010.438	60572.6	11345.59
Gegharkunik	21889.88	238054.4	3635.07	39933.93	124010.7	90318.54	17289.28
Kotayk	20810.43	102757.6	2313.48	20405.93	1661.12	45813.84	13820.73
Lori	86365.8	200387.6	4830.7	23510.69	4751.58	48300.81	11717.3
Shirak	4598.8	144403.9	0	13622.23	3427.13	83846.24	18128.89
Syunik	80905.01	194761.5	15742.25	91253.96	5576.07	47958	14345
Tavush	133659.9	82690.46	2943.31	10681.01	1094.24	31359.26	7970.77
Vayots Dzor	28325.5	114823.3	1147.9	60825.9	923.4	20109.42	4857.7
Yerevan	1845.1	1001.2	0	1133.29	155.61	3283.62	14909.08
Armenia	400279.5	1370749	34135.56	335171.5	153890.4	538930.1	140541.9

Sources:
(2021) http://www.irtek.am/DOCUMENTS/PDF/148034_havelvac.pdf
(2021) https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/arm209550.pdf
(2022) http://www.irtek.am/views/act.aspx?aid=156501
(2022) https://www.arlis.am/DocumentView.aspx?DocID=171671
(2023) https://www.e-draft.am/projects/6427/about
(2024) https://www.e-draft.am/projects/7902/about

2.2.B. Extent of land cover classes by ESRI data

Since the ESRI land cover dataset was selected for use in the project, the subsequent extent assessment was conducted by ESRI data вased on the area of 1 pixel equal to 100 m². The extent of different land cover classes according to the other datasets can be found here. The area of Lake Sevan and the administrative area of Yerevan were excluded from the extent assessment.


Figure 3. ESRI dataset for the territory of Armenia. For detailed maps see sections “Ecosystem extent – Landcover” here

Extent of land cover classes at the national, marz, and watershed levels

The majority of Armenia’s territory is covered by grasslands (68% аccording to ESRI data), forests occupy 11% (compared to 13% according to Government data), croplands and built-up areas account for 12% and 5%, respectively. The most human-transformed marz is Armavir, where croplands and built-up areas together make up over 60% of the territory. The least transformed marzes are Vayots Dzor, Tavush, and Syunik. Forests cover the largest area in Tavush (around 50%), and are also widespread in Lori, where they exceed 20% of the territory.

Table 4. Area of land cover classes in 2017, km2

	Rangeland	Trees	Bare Ground	Snow/Ice	Flooded vegetation	Water	Crops	Built Area	Total
ARAGATSOTN	2,161.08	52.54	12.60	0.02	0.00	3.43	380.13	126.33	2,736.12
ARARAT	1,522.66	30.47	16.35	0.01	11.71	29.16	359.92	144.64	2,114.91
ARMAVIR	455.53	2.84	5.45	0.00	1.81	6.67	645.14	146.25	1,263.70
GEGHARKUNIK	3,320.37	134.93	19.08	0.04	1.40	1,274.09	315.10	182.98	5,248.00
KOTAYK	1,506.57	171.74	7.47	0.74	0.01	2.49	270.63	155.14	2,114.80
LORI	2,558.39	869.51	4.55	0.02	0.44	2.64	189.21	138.24	3,763.00
SHIRAK	1,998.79	13.08	4.31	0.00	0.07	27.21	537.55	137.61	2,718.63
SYUNIK	3,571.06	634.26	33.14	0.13	0.04	17.98	170.64	66.09	4,493.35
TAVUSH	1,234.28	1,304.10	1.34	0.00	0.00	4.00	91.52	91.00	2,726.24
VAYOTZ DZOR	2,157.65	47.10	14.01	0.02	0.01	2.76	35.26	39.74	2,296.54
ARMENIA	20,549.27	3,261.03	119.68	0.97	15.47	1,371.25	3,018.23	1,372.59	29,708.49

Table 5. Area of land cover classes in 2023, km2

	Rangeland	Trees	Bare Ground	Snow/Ice	Flooded vegetation	Water	Crops	Built Area	Total
ARAGATSOTN	2,096.86	48.25	3.48	6.38	0.00	3.50	438.49	139.17	2,736.12
ARARAT	1,560.01	26.20	6.94	0.04	6.74	32.42	305.46	177.10	2,114.91
ARMAVIR	461.83	0.55	2.05	0.00	0.15	7.10	609.26	182.76	1,263.70
GEGHARKUNIK	3,239.85	129.56	4.28	0.94	0.65	1,274.08	404.99	193.66	5,248.00
KOTAYK	1,508.64	153.10	1.08	1.60	0.00	2.57	265.38	182.43	2,114.80
LORI	2,424.92	883.74	2.83	0.31	0.79	3.81	298.87	147.73	3,763.00
SHIRAK	1,784.67	13.43	0.91	2.47	0.00	31.48	742.89	142.79	2,718.63
SYUNIK	3,650.25	507.74	12.65	0.09	0.02	15.86	233.22	73.53	4,493.35
TAVUSH	1,227.75	1,316.33	0.05	0.04	0.02	4.35	82.03	95.67	2,726.24
VAYOTZ DZOR	2,174.55	38.13	2.51	0.35	0.00	2.35	33.28	45.37	2,296.54
ARMENIA	20,185.02	3,117.51	37.33	12.21	8.39	1,378.29	3,422.08	1,547.66	29,708.49

Figure 4. Area of land cover classes across marzes in 2017 and 2023, km2

Figure 5. The share of area of land cover classes in Armenia and across marzes in 2017 and 2023, %

Land cover class extent accounting was also carried out for the large watersheds, since one of the key purposes of ecosystem accounting is to assess water-regulating ecosystem services, which are modeled at the watershed level. Since in Armenia watershed boundaries largely coincide with marz boundaries (the Hrazdan, Metsamor, and Arpa watersheds each include two marzes), the pattern of land cover class area distribution and its changes from 2017 to 2023 mirrors the pattern identified at the marz level.

The most human-transformed watersheds are Metsamor (marzes Aragatsotn and Armavir) and Akhuryan (marz Shirak), where croplands and built-up areas together make up around 30% of the territory. The least transformed watersheds are Aghstev (marz Tavush) and Vorotan (marz Syunik). Forests cover large areas in Aghstev watershed (marz Tavush) and Debed watershed (marz Lori).

Table 6. Area of land cover classes, km2

		Rangeland	Trees	Bare Ground	Snow/Ice	Flooded vegetation	Water	Crops	Built Area
2017	Aghstev	1600.07	1401.27	1.99	0.01	0.00	3.70	69.63	98.72
	Akhuryan	1999.78	9.30	4.42	0.00	0.07	27.25	599.85	144.59
	Arpa	3839.27	79.92	30.63	0.15	10.84	26.36	288.32	134.83
	Debed	2719.90	843.51	4.83	0.02	0.44	3.11	212.89	141.05
	Hrazdan	4384.18	243.39	27.42	0.65	1.68	1281.05	765.19	545.57
	Metsamor	2420.53	49.32	17.31	0.02	2.41	11.80	911.62	241.75
	Vorotan	3573.45	634.26	32.93	0.13	0.04	17.98	170.65	66.09
2023	Aghstev	1590.30	1397.07	0.09	0.08	0.02	4.04	80.02	103.76
	Akhuryan	1801.94	9.54	0.90	2.36	0.00	31.54	789.01	149.95
	Arpa	3890.99	66.30	9.26	0.73	6.22	29.55	249.59	157.67
	Debed	2575.47	865.33	2.84	0.27	0.79	4.29	325.58	151.17
	Hrazdan	4305.51	228.70	6.24	2.17	0.67	1280.73	794.73	630.37
	Metsamor	2356.44	42.74	5.25	6.48	0.66	12.27	949.72	281.20
	Vorotan	3652.35	507.74	12.65	0.11	0.02	15.86	233.26	73.54

Figure 7. Area of land cover classes across watersheds in 2017 and 2023, km2

Figure 8. The share of area of land cover classes across watersheds in 2017 and 2023, %

Changes in land cover class extent

Between 2017 and 2023, according to ESRI data, the area of croplands and built-up areas in Armenia increased by 417 km² and 175 km², respectively, while the area of forests and grasslands decreased by 139 km² and 383 km². The total area of natural land-cover types decreased by 578.9 km² (1.95% of the country’s total area) over these years, transitioning to croplands and built-up areas.
Figure 9. Changes in the area of land cover classes from 2017 to 2023

The map of changes in land cover (Figure 10) shows that built-up areas expanded primarily in the Ararat Valley and around Yerevan (maroon color), while croplands expanded most intensively in the north-western part of the country (orange color in Figure). Local forest expansion occurred in several locations within Armenia’s forest zone in the north-east; however, overall forest extent decreased, mainly due to transitions to grasslands in Syunik. Grasslands expanded in the southern part of Syunik marz, but their total extent across Armenia also decreased due to transitions to croplands.
Figure 10. The land cover and its changes: a) ESRI land cover data for 2023; b) The land-cover changes that occurred since 2017, specifically the new land-cover classes that emerged in place of previous ones, are shown.

The land-cover class transition matrix shows how much area of each class transitioned to another class (Table 7). In this matrix, the classes listed in the first column transform into the classes shown across each row. Example: In the tree cover row, the area that remained tree cover is 2909.87 km² (tree cover transitioned to tree cover), tree cover transitioned to grasslands over an area of 362.79 km², to bare ground – 0.02 km², and so on. The most intensive transition was from grasslands to croplands (941 km²), while the reverse transition is less than half of that value (444 km²). A shift from tree cover to grasslands is also noticeable (362 km²). Other transitions are negligible (Fig. 11).

The sum of transitions to other classes corresponds to the loss of tree cover due to these conversions (last column, 369.92 km²). At the same time, other classes transitioned into tree cover, producing its gain of 230.88 km² (bottom row). Thus, the net change in tree cover is a decrease of 139.04 km². These data make it possible to populate rows “Additions to extent” and “Reductions in extent” in the accounting table of land cover class extent (Table 8), which are unknown if we know only the opening and closing extent. As noted in Section 1.4.A, we do not have data to distinguish between managed and unmanaged land cover changes.

Table 7. Land cover class transition matrix from 2017 to 2023, km²

	Tree cover	Grasslands	Bare ground	Snow/ Ice	Water	Flooded veg.	Crops	Built-up	Total area in 2017	Reduc-tion
Tree cover →	2909.87	362.79	0.02	0.05	0.58	0.02	3.74	2.72	3279.79	369.92
Grasslands →	224.03	19221.76	2.12	7.56	13.46	1.74	940.92	114.62	20526.21	1304.45
Bare ground →	0.05	75.63	29.67	3.70	1.97	0.24	2.10	2.59	115.94	86.27
Snow/Ice →	0.01	0.49	0.04	0.33	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.06	0.96	0.63
Water →	0.44	8.74	2.29	0.04	101.20	0.47	7.41	1.53	122.12	20.92
Flooded veg. →	0.05	3.34	0.05	0.00	4.48	4.78	1.81	0.87	15.37	10.59
Crops →	3.04	444.42	0.42	0.29	6.62	1.18	2478.53	97.21	3031.70	553.17
Built-up→	3.27	25.79	0.76	0.03	0.50	0.02	14.40	1335.95	1380.72	44.77
Total area in 2023	3140.75	20142.95	35.35	12.00	128.82	8.46	3448.92	1555.56	28472.82
Expansion	230.88	921.19	5.69	11.67	27.62	3.68	970.39	219.61		2390.73

Figure 11. Transitions between land cover classes from 2017 to 2023

Table 8. Accounting table of land-cover class extent for 2017 and 2023, based on ESRI land cover dataset

The most significant changes occurred in Shirak marz, where cropland area increased by 200 km² at the expense of grasslands. Similar but less extensive cropland expansion at the expense of grasslands took place in Lori, Gegharkunik, and Aragatsotn. In contrast, in Armavir and Ararat, cropland area decreased. In Armavir, this was due to an increase in built-up areas, while in Ararat, it resulted from both an expansion of built-up areas and grasslands. In Syunik marz, forest area noticeably declined due to an increase in grasslands and croplands. Relative changes in land cover areas present a somewhat different picture. In 2023, the ESRI land cover dataset shows an 80% loss of tree cover in Armavir marz compared to 2017, although this loss is barely noticeable in absolute terms due to the initially small woody area in that marz. The largest relative increase in cropland area was identified in Lori marz — nearly 60%.

Table 9. Changes in area of land cover classes from 2017 to 2023, km2

	Rangeland	Trees	Bare Ground	Snow/Ice	Flooded vegetation	Water	Crops	Built Area
ARAGATSOTN	-64.22	-4.29	-9.12	6.36	0.00	0.06	58.36	12.84
ARARAT	37.35	-4.28	-9.42	0.04	-4.96	3.27	-54.46	32.46
ARMAVIR	6.30	-2.29	-3.41	0.00	-1.65	0.43	-35.88	36.50
GEGHARKUNIK	-80.52	-5.37	-14.81	0.90	-0.75	-0.02	89.89	10.68
KOTAYK	2.07	-18.64	-6.39	0.86	-0.01	0.08	-5.26	27.28
LORI	-133.47	14.22	-1.72	0.28	0.35	1.17	109.66	9.50
SHIRAK	-214.12	0.34	-3.40	2.47	-0.06	4.26	205.33	5.18
SYUNIK	79.18	-126.52	-20.49	-0.04	-0.02	-2.12	62.58	7.44
TAVUSH	-6.54	12.23	-1.28	0.04	0.02	0.35	-9.49	4.68
VAYOTZ DZOR	16.90	-8.97	-11.50	0.33	-0.01	-0.41	-1.98	5.63
ARMENIA	-364.25	-143.52	-82.35	11.23	-7.08	7.04	403.85	175.08

Figure 12. Absolute (km2) and relative (% of 2017 area) changes in area of the main land cover classes in Armenia and across marzes from 2017 to 2023


Figure 13. Total changes in the extent of natural land cover classes across marzes from 2017 to 2023

The most significant changes in land cover area occurred in Akhurian watershed (Shirak marz), where cropland area increased by 200 km² at the expense of grasslands. Similar but less extensive cropland expansion at the expense of grasslands took place in Debed watershed (Lori marz). In the Razdan and Metsamor watersheds, grassland areas decreased due to the expansion of croplands and built-up areas. Changes in the Arpa watershed are driven by changes in Ararat marz, where cropland area decreased due to the expansion of built-up areas and grasslands. In Vorotan watershed (Syunik marz), forest area noticeably declined due to an increase in grasslands and croplands.

Relative changes show the largest relative increase in cropland area in Debed watershed (Lori marz) and significant increase in cropland area in Vorotan watershed (Syunik marz) and Akhuryan watershed (Shirak marz). In the Vorotan, Arpa, and Metsamor watersheds, forest area decreased by 10–20%.

Table 10. Changes in area of land cover classes across watersheds from 2017 to 2023, km2

	Rangeland	Trees	Bare Ground	Snow/Ice	Flooded vegetation	Water	Crops	Built Area
Aghstev	-9.77	-4.20	-1.90	0.08	0.02	0.34	10.39	5.04
Akhuryan	-197.84	0.25	-3.52	2.36	-0.06	4.29	189.17	5.35
Arpa	51.72	-13.62	-21.36	0.58	-4.62	3.19	-38.73	22.85
Debed	-144.43	21.82	-1.99	0.25	0.35	1.18	112.69	10.12
Hrazdan	-78.67	-14.69	-21.18	1.52	-1.01	-0.32	29.54	84.81
Metsamor	-64.09	-6.59	-12.06	6.46	-1.75	0.47	38.10	39.46
Vorotan	78.89	-126.52	-20.28	-0.02	-0.02	-2.12	62.62	7.45

Figure 13. Absolute (km2) and relative (% of 2017 area) changes in area of the main land cover classes across watersheds from 2017 to 2023